Eurocontrol Forecast: Traffic to Recover From COVID-19, But War in Ukraine Might Affect Travelling in 2022
According to the forecast update for 2022-2024, the European Network Traffic for flights has already recovered by 2022 in only the first half of the year – reaching a total of 77 per cent of pre-pandemic levels, AtoZSerwisPlus.com reports.
The report shows that the average daily flights between May 26 and June 1 have reached 86 per cent of 2019 levels, which indicates that the traffic has peaked at almost 30,000.
However, the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially the Omicron variant, is linked with a downward revision by Oxford Economics (OEF), indicating the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which includes the combination of higher-for longer inflation and lower growth, mainly via more subdued consumption.
As OEF shows, macro-economic impact on GDP baseline is noticeable as it has reached the 5.0 mark, as uncertainty remains very high, with risks linked to the downside.
Three main scenarios include recovery to 2019 levels in 2023, with the pandemic moving to the endemic phase with no travel restriction. In addition, this scenario includes the full restoration of pre-COVID long-haul flows in the third quarter of the year.
Good passenger confidence, pent-up demand, and faster bounce-back of business travel are expected according to this baseline scenario, which foresees the COVID-19 recovery by 2024.
“Thanks to the savings glut effect, no impact of the increase of energy prices (including jet fuel price), food costs and ticket prices on purchasing power of travellers,” the report says regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Another scenario, which is the baseline, anticipates the restoration of pre-pandemic levels of the traffic by the end of the year, indicating the last quarter. Although pent-up demand, savings glut, and relatively good passenger confidence, business travel is slowly returning.
Just like the previous scenario, a very limited and quite limited impact of staff shortage will be evident. However, an increase in energy prices, food costs, and ticket prices is anticipated to have a limited negative impact.
The last scenario, which expects recovery of the traffic by 2027, foresees the reintroduction of constant lockdowns and travel restrictions, with the nearly absolute restoration of 2019 levels by the second quarter of 2023.
Airports, airlines, and other actors are expected to face difficulties in operating compared to pre-pandemic levels with a high impact of staff shortage.
As per overflights, the invasion of Ukraine is affecting those in several countries, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, and Turkey. On the other hand, fewer overflights are noticed in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark, Norway, and Poland.
